NZ Property Market 2026: Prices, Rents & Regional Trends
- Kieran Trass
- 5 minutes ago
- 8 min read
ON THE MARKET – February 2026 Edition
NZ Property Market Recovery: Early Signals in 2026
As we begin 2026 the property market feels markedly different than it did over the past couple of years.
For most of the last cycle people were asking whether the market had actually hit a bottom. Interest rates were still elevated. Buyers were cautious. Sales were subdued. Listings piled up. Confidence was fragile.
Now, that conversation has changed. The market is no longer searching for a bottom. It has found one, and is slowly moving from stagnation into early recovery.
This shift is not driven by hype, but by behaviour and data:
credit conditions have eased after a long period of constraint
buyers are returning to the market
volumes have stabilised
official forecasts anticipate positive growth
key regions are performing unevenly but directionally better
All of these are typical of the early stages of a recovery, the phase where confidence often returns before noticeable price growth.
NZ House Price Forecast 2026–2030
One of the most important recent developments for market thinking has been the New Zealand Treasury’s updated house price outlook.
The Treasury now projects that house price growth will accelerate, with annual increases of roughly 6–7 percent from 2027 to 2030.
These numbers are materially below the extraordinary peaks of 2021, but they outline a clear, multi-year recovery path.
In practical terms this means the early part of 2026 is expected to be a period of modest price improvement, enough to confirm recovery. Growth is forecast to pick up more meaningfully in the second half of 2026 and beyond.
The Treasury’s outlook aligns with what we see on the ground, buyers are returning, listings are slowly being absorbed, and volumes are stabilising ahead of prices.
House Sale Profits: Winners and Losers in 2025
Recent Cotality resale data shows how different parts of the country performed over the past year.
Nationally, resale profits have declined sharply since the pandemic highs.
Where once homeowners commonly banked significant gains over multiyear holds, profit margins have shrunk. The proportion of homes selling at a loss increased from about 1 percent up to around 12 percent between 2021 and 2025.
Auckland and Wellington were among the hardest hit, with close to 20 percent of resales in 2025 showing losses. Conversely, Queenstown Lakes stood out for strong gains, with the median resale profit in 2025 close to $480,000 for those who bought earlier in the decade.
This divergence shows how the recovery is already uneven. Where strong underlying demand meets limited supply and sustained lifestyle appeal, as in the Queenstown Lakes district, outcomes have been far better than in softer markets with weaker demand.
That difference is important for investors and owner occupiers alike. It reinforces why understanding local drivers matters more than assuming a uniform national cycle.
NZ Rental Market 2026: Regional Divergence
The rental landscape across New Zealand continues to show a striking divide.
Nationally, rental prices have eased modestly, with the average weekly rent down to about $626 per week in December 2025, a 2.4 percent drop year-on-year. Regions such as Coromandel, Wellington and Hawke’s Bay have seen meaningful declines as rental stock rises and competition increases.
But at the other end of the spectrum, Central Otago / Queenstown Lakes continues to defy the broader trend. Average weekly rents there hit about $891 in December 2025, up nearly 12 percent on the prior year and well higher than anywhere else in the country.
This rent divergence reinforces a key point: while many regions are seeing tepid rent dynamics, tourism and lifestyle oriented destinations with structurally limited rental stock are under strain, and are drawing upward pressure on rents that approaches mortgage serviceability in some segments.
For investors particularly, this means understanding where rental markets are tightening and where they are loosening, a crucial distinction that influences yield and cashflow expectations as conditions evolve.
Auckland Property Market Outlook 2026
Auckland’s market remains in a cautious phase, but the tone has changed.
Headline indicators still show a buyer’s market, listings are above long term averages and days to sell remain elevated. But beneath that surface softness are emerging signs of stabilisation:
well located and well priced properties are selling more reliably than they were last year
viewing activity has increased in a number of suburbs
vendor discounting is narrowing
enquiry from prospective upgraders has grown
Perhaps most importantly, affordable new housing supply remains constrained by infrastructure and development cost issues. That constraint matters because when demand returns in earnest, it is harder for supply to catch up particularly in lower priced segments.
Treasury’s forecast of modest growth in 2026 suggests a gentle shift upward rather than a sharp rebound. For Auckland, that means the early recovery we are seeing now could mature into sustained growth over the next couple of years as volumes firm and supply constraints bite.
Tauranga Property Market 2026 Update
Tauranga continues to attract consistent interest from buyers who value lifestyle, affordability and proximity to Auckland. Unlike larger metros, Tauranga’s recovery has been steady rather than erratic.
In late 2025 and early 2026 we have seen:
solid enquiry from both local and relocating buyers
reduced vendor discounting
a slow lift in turnover
Where many regions are still feeling the effect of broader economic hesitancy, Tauranga’s market has been more resilient. This is partly because supply remains relatively constrained compared to long term household growth expectations, which sets a firm foundation when borrowing conditions ease and confidence returns.
Queenstown Lakes Property & Rental Market 2026
The Queenstown Lakes region continues to demonstrate how much local demand forces can influence outcomes.
As rental data shows, rents in the area have reached record highs, reflecting tight stock and strong lifestyle and tourism linked demand. This has created two immediate effects:
renters facing high weekly costs are increasingly considering ownership where possible
investor interest remains focused on markets with strong rental fundamentals
When you combine these rental dynamics with the resale performance in 2025, where Queenstown Lakes topped the list for median resale profits, you end up with a market that is showing early signs of cycle acceleration ahead of many other regions.
It is important to emphasise that this acceleration is regional, not national, and driven by structural imbalances (high demand, limited stock) rather than speculative sentiment.
Queenstown Short Stay Investment Growth
While long-term rental data captures part of Queenstown Lakes’ story, it does not fully reflect another accelerating layer of demand: professionally managed short stay accommodation.
Staircase’s short stay division, Go Shortstay, has been operating for just seven months. In that time, it has already become the fifth largest short stay operator in Queenstown. Importantly, this position has been built organically through structured off-plan sales and settlement flow, not through portfolio acquisition.
That distinction matters. It reflects forward investor commitment rather than consolidation of existing stock.
Looking ahead, approximately 120 additional short stay properties are scheduled to settle through to the end of 2027. On the basis of confirmed pipeline alone, this trajectory positions Staircase to become the largest short stay operator in the Queenstown Lakes district over that period.
The implications are significant:
it signals sustained investor confidence in tourism-linked accommodation demand
it builds operating scale in a market where professional management, distribution reach and systems increasingly determine performance outcomes
As Queenstown Lakes continues to experience rental pressure and tourism resilience, professionally managed short stay stock is emerging as a structurally distinct segment of the housing ecosystem that is adjacent to long-term rentals, but driven by different demand dynamics and yield characteristics.
In a market defined by limited supply and persistent global visitor appeal, scale and operational capability are becoming competitive advantages rather than optional extras.
Volumes Lead, Prices Follow
One of the most important lessons from property cycles is that volumes lead and prices follow.
Over the past two years volumes were weak, confirming suppressed activity even as interest rates began to move. In the latter months of 2025 and into early 2026, volumes stopped falling and have begun to stabilise in many markets.
That stabilisation is the early signalling of recovery.
When volume growth becomes consistent, price growth usually follows with a lag, exactly what Treasury’s modest 2026 forecast reflects.
In practical terms, this means that even if house prices seem flat or only slowly rising in early 2026, the market may already be moving toward the next phase. The floor has been passed.
The next step is expansion.
Where This Leaves You as an Investor or Buyer
The clear message from recent data, Treasury forecasts, resale profit patterns, rental divergences and stabilising volumes is that we have moved beyond the weakest points in the cycle.
That does not mean every region will behave the same way. It means two things:
the risk of further significant price decline has diminished
a steady, recovery phase has begun, with regional variation
For investors and buyers, this phase favours preparation over prediction. It is less about guessing the exact moment prices will spring up and more about understanding where underlying demand, limited supply and improving credit conditions overlap.
Markets like Queenstown Lakes and parts of the Bay of Plenty are examples of where local fundamentals are already interacting with cyclical recovery forces.
Some other regions may be slower to show price movement, but stabilisation in volumes and improving buyer behaviour are promising signals.
Looking Forward
As 2026 unfolds, the narrative is likely to transition from stabilisation to gradual growth. Treasury’s forecasts point to that path, and emerging market behaviour appears consistent with it.
This is not a boom phase. It is the early part of the recovery, the quiet phase where smart weights to fundamentals matter most.
At Staircase we continue tracking these shifts with a cycle aware lens, prioritising regional fundamentals and real behavioural data over headline noise.
Here’s to a grounded, strategic year ahead.
Frequently Asked Questions: New Zealand Property Market 2026
Is the New Zealand property market recovering in 2026?
Signs point to an early recovery phase. Buyer activity is improving, volumes have stabilised, credit conditions have eased, and forward-looking forecasts anticipate a return to price growth over the next cycle.
What is Treasury forecasting for house prices?
Treasury’s updated outlook points to accelerating house price growth later in the cycle, with annual increases forecast around the mid-single digits (roughly 6–7%) from 2027 to 2030.
Are rents falling across New Zealand?
In many regions, yes. National rents have eased modestly. But it’s not uniform, and several lifestyle/tourism-driven markets remain structurally tight.
Why is Queenstown Lakes different from the national rental trend?
Queenstown Lakes continues to face limited rental supply alongside strong lifestyle and tourism-linked demand. That imbalance is putting upward pressure on rents and keeping the region out of step with softer national conditions.
What do resale profits tell us about market conditions?
Resale profits have compressed nationally since the pandemic peak, and the share of properties selling at a loss has risen in some regions. Queenstown Lakes, however, has stood out for stronger resale outcomes, reinforcing the importance of local fundamentals.
Why do “volumes lead, prices follow” in property cycles?
Transaction volumes tend to stabilise and rise before prices do. When buyer demand begins absorbing listings more consistently, price growth typically follows with a lag.
What role does the short stay market play in Queenstown’s housing ecosystem?
Short stay accommodation operates alongside long-term rentals but is driven by different demand dynamics. As professional management and distribution capability become more important, scale can materially influence occupancy and yield outcomes.
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