Is Now a Good Time to Buy a House in NZ?

The question comes up time and again: is now really the right time to buy?

A happy family outside their new home

According to recent surveys, more New Zealanders think so today than at any point since 2011. ASB’s latest housing confidence report shows a net 26% of people believe it’s a good time to purchase, a level not seen in over a decade.

So, what’s driving that shift? Let’s break it down.

Prices Are Still Soft

House prices remain well below their peak, down around 15–17% nationally. In many areas, values have been bouncing in a narrow band, with small rises offset by small falls.

The overhang of stock on the market has kept prices in check, particularly in Auckland.

For buyers, this represents a window of opportunity. It’s rare to see this level of choice without the frenzy of competitive bidding.

Affordability Has Improved

BNZ notes that housing affordability is at its “least bad” level since late 2020. At Staircase, our Staircase Affordability Index (SAI) confirms a similar story: serviceability is dramatically better than it was three years ago, thanks to rising incomes and falling mortgage rates.

Bank test rates, the rates used to assess whether a borrower can afford a loan, have also eased back toward 2020–21 levels.

For qualified buyers, this means banks are more open to lending than they have been in years.

The Cycle Will Turn

Commentators expect prices to shift up in 2026. As sales activity increases, interest rates trend down, and employment strengthens, confidence will return. History shows that once sentiment flips, the market often moves quickly.

As Cotality’s Kelvin Davidson points out, buyers often wait until it’s a sellers’ market before acting which means paying more. Property, unlike when say milk is on sale, doesn’t usually tempt people to grab a bargain whilst it’s available.

But those who do take advantage of today’s conditions often reap outsized rewards when the market rises again.

Risks to Watch

Of course, timing matters. Buyers who stretched themselves in 2021 are now feeling the squeeze of lower valuations, higher council rates, and elevated holding costs.

Property is not immune to cycles, and patience is required because property investment is a long term wealth creation strategy not a get rich quick scheme.

But for those who hold long term, and service their mortgages comfortably, the cycle works in their favour.

Staircase Perspective

At Staircase, we view today’s market as a classic early recovery phase: affordability is improving, interest rates are easing, and sentiment is turning positive but the wider public hasn’t yet recognised the current opportune timing.

Historically, these are the moments when the smartest investors step in.

So YES now is a good time to buy a rental property.

The choice for buyers now is clear: act while the market remains flat and competition low, or wait until prices are rising again and pay the premium. If you want to know what this means for you, book a free 1-on-1 chat with our team who will show you what your options are.

Book a free strategy session