NZ Property Market Turns a Corner: Cashbacks, Low Rates & Record Sales
- Staircase Financial
- 4 days ago
- 5 min read
Staircase Mortgage Newsletter November 2025
Two Moonshots! One Real Market Shift
This month marks not just a milestone for us at Staircase, but a tipping point for the entire New Zealand property market.
First, the major banks are now offering up to 1.5% cash back on new mortgages, a headline level incentive rarely seen.
Second, we’re thrilled to announce that Staircase has just delivered our biggest month of November property sales in our 24 year history and the month is not even over yet!
When both banks and investors are moving decisively, it signals more than coincidence. It marks a cycle shift: confidence is rising, and the window of opportunity is wide open.
The time to act is now.
Big Bank Cash Back Offers: Why They Matter Now
Major lenders, including ANZ, are offering 1.5% cash back on eligible new mortgages. On an $800,000 loan, that’s about $12,000 back in your pocket at settlement.
Recent media commentary reinforces the importance of this move:
RNZ reports the offer is “about twice the normal cash back” available in recent years.
OneRoof describes it as a “mortgage war level incentive” as banks compete for market share.
Industry analysts point out that these incentives often appear at the start of a recovery phase, when banks want to lock in lending early.
For borrowers, this means more than a marketing gimmick. That cash can be used to:
Increase your deposit
Reduce other debts
Cover legal and moving costs
Improve cash flow
Renovate or upgrade fixtures
Strengthen your serviceability position
Conditions apply, of course - most banks require the loan to stay with them for three years. However for many households, especially investors, the benefits outweigh the conditions.
To us, this is a clear move by banks to secure lending ahead of a full market recovery. That means savvy borrowers still have room to capitalise.
Perfect Timing: Low Rates, Rising Confidence
These cash offers arrive as fixed mortgage rates dip to around 4.49%, the lowest level since 2021.
For the average household, this equates to roughly $550 in monthly savings compared to mid-2024. Our Staircase Affordability Index shows serviceability has improved by over 20% from last year’s peak.
That’s why we’re seeing:
Borrowers who were turned down earlier this year are now getting approvals.
Investors who put expansion on hold are revisiting their strategy.
First home buyers can now reach the threshold more easily.
In short, finance conditions have have become dramatically more favourable.
Why This Market Moment Is Rare
We’re entering a Golden Quadrant of opportunity:
Low Interest Rates: Fixed mortgage rates are trending near 4.49%, unlocking greater borrowing capacity.
Improved Affordability: Our Staircase Affordability Index shows repayments as a share of income have improved by >20% compared to last year.
Easing Access to Credit: In the wake of the cash-back competition and falling rates, banks are lifting test rates and loosening lending criteria.
Record Buyer Activity at Staircase: For us, this is not just speculation, we’re seeing real buyer activity and property movement. Our highest volume November month in 24 years reflects the market awakening.
From a cycle perspective, this is the classic early recovery phase: credit loosens, confidence returns, and volume leads price growth.
Our research suggests this is the time when disciplined investors get the best long term results.
Sales volumes improve first, then confidence grows, and price growth follows.
And we’re seeing these trends play out already:
Borrowers are returning.
Investors are repositioning.
Cycle indicators are turning green.
The Return of First Home Buyers and Investors
Two key buyer groups are making a comeback:
First Home Buyers
First home buyers are stepping back in with force.
Cotality’s latest October 2025 update shows their share of purchases has climbed to 28%, a clear jump from the lows of the rate-hike years.
Lower mortgage rates, easier test conditions, and improved affordability are allowing many to finally qualify for lending again.
With activity rising in 17 of the past 20 months, first home buyers are now one of the strongest drivers of early-stage market recovery.
Investors
Investors now represent 35% of purchasers:
24.4% of purchases as multiple property owners with mortgages
10.8% of purchases as multiple property owners paying cash
This aligns with falling mortgage rates, improved yields, and full reinstatement of interest deductibility.
These two groups are the early fuel for the recovery.
Another group that is poised to push up sales volume and sales prices are Upgraders:
These are households moving from one owned home to a better, bigger, or different property. Many have held off for the past three years due to job uncertainty or serviceability constraints.
Cotality data shows upgraders make up roughly 25% of all purchases today, down from 30% in 2021. That 5% gap represents many thousands of households with pent up demand.
They are the emotional buyers. They are less price sensitive. When they return in numbers, competition increases quickly and property prices follow.
Our View: A Stronger Upswing Ahead
At Staircase, we believe the stage is set for the next strong phase of the cycle.
Here is what we expect:
Double digit price growth is likely to emerge in Auckland and Queenstown once the recovery matures and the next boom commences.
Sales volumes expected to strengthen further quarter by quarter.
Borrowing power will continue to climb as rates hold low and competition among banks intensifies.
Upgraders will return in meaningful numbers, driving competition for homes.
Investors will expand their portfolios as cash flow improves.
Supply constraints will amplify upward pressure on prices, especially in regions with tight land supply such as Queenstown and parts of Auckland.
When both affordability and confidence lift together, markets tend to accelerate. We saw this in 2010, 2015, and 2021.
We expect a similar pattern to play out in the next year or two.
Why Our Record November Month Matters
A 24 year high in our monthly sales volume does not happen by chance.
It reflects:
More motivated buyers
More accessible lending
More confidence
Increased investor participation
Stronger property pipeline
A market moving into a new phase
Our result is a real time indicator of what the statistics will show in the coming months.
What You Should Do Now
We recommend:
Review your borrowing power immediately.
You may be surprised at how much more you qualify for under current conditions.
Take advantage of cash back offers while they exist.
Banks compete hardest early in the recovery.
Secure pre approval early.
Rates and incentives may tighten once demand lifts.
Explore high growth regions now.
Auckland, Tauranga, and Queenstown are already showing movement.
When banks start handing out cash, when rates fall to multi year lows, and when Staircase records our best November month in 24 years, you know the market is turning.
This is your moment.
Step up with Staircase.
Lock in your FREE strategy session now.
We’ll break down exactly what’s possible based on where you are right now.
