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NZ Property Market Holds Steady as Spring Nears

  • Writer: Staircase Financial
    Staircase Financial
  • Jul 18
  • 4 min read

Updated: Jul 25

ON THE MARKET – July 2025 Edition


New Zealand's property market is quietly laying the groundwork for its next growth phase.
New Zealand's property market is quietly laying the groundwork for its next growth phase.

As we enter the second half of 2025, New Zealand’s property market is quietly laying the groundwork for its next growth phase. From stabilising prices and aggressive interest rate cuts to investor-friendly tax reforms and shrinking housing supply, the signs are increasingly pointing toward recovery. In this update, Staircase Financial Management unpacks the latest data and market drivers- highlighting not just where we are now, but where we’re headed.


Whether you're a seasoned investor or just starting out, this article will equip you with clear insights and, more importantly, four actionable steps you can take this month to position yourself ahead of the spring resurgence.


Table of Contents:



Key Insights: Confidence is Building


Home Prices Stabilise

Residential property values are holding their ground. Since OCR cuts began in August 2024, we've seen a modest but encouraging 0.5% increase in values nationally with some locations outperforming. This is an early sign that the market has found its floor. Stability is an essential foundation for future capital growth, and current price levels present compelling entry points for savvy investors.


Interest Rate Cuts Gaining Traction

Since August 2024, the Reserve Bank has slashed the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by a cumulative 2.25%. Although the full impact of such cuts typically takes 12 months to flow through to the wider economy, green shoots are already emerging. As borrowing costs fall, we expect improved mortgage affordability and increased buyer activity to take hold, particularly by mid-2026. Momentum is building.


Investor Friendly Policy Shifts Unlocking Opportunity

With Brightline test periods shortening and interest deductibility returning for rental property owners, the regulatory environment is now swinging back in favour of investors. These changes not only enhance after tax returns but also boost borrowing power. As confidence builds and more investors enter the market, this is likely to spark the next leg up in prices.


Seasonal Softness Masking Underlying Strength

June saw a modest 0.3% decline in average values, which is in line with historic winter lulls. Don’t be misled. This isn’t a downturn, it’s seasonal inertia. Come spring, the combination of lower interest rates, pent up demand, and policy tailwinds is likely to translate into a pickup in both buyer sentiment and market activity.


Supply Pressures Remain Favourable

Although net migration has cooled from its 2023 highs and economic conditions remain mixed, the pipeline of new builds is shrinking. Infrastructure constraints, particularly in Auckland, mean fewer affordable dwellings are being delivered, especially in the under $800,000 price bracket. This structural shortage continues to underpin medium to long term value growth potential.


Market Pause, Not Decline

Kiwibank’s latest housing commentary interprets the market is in a strategic holding pattern rather than a correction. With many investors waiting for further confirmation, the current lull represents an ideal opportunity for first movers. Historically, market recoveries favour those who buy before the crowd returns.


Why This Matters for You


  • The market has bottomed out, not collapsed. A flat trend signals stability and is often a prelude to upward movement.

  • Policy tailwinds are increasing investor confidence, especially around rental property profitability.

  • Mortgage affordability is improving, allowing more buyers to re-engage.

  • A tighter housing supply, paired with improving sentiment, suggests prices could rise faster than many expect.

  • Spring’s seasonal uplift may revive listings and boost competition so now is the time to get ahead.


Lifestyle Markets Are Rebounding


Tauranga/Papamoa:

This coastal hotspot is attracting strong lifestyle driven migration. Q1 data showed a 0.4% increase in average property values, supported by limited listings and improving rental yields. With a reputation for stable growth and a desirable lifestyle, Tauranga continues to be one of New Zealand’s most resilient residential property investment locations.


Frankton/Queenstown:

Despite being the country’s least affordable housing market, demand remains strong, particularly from long term investors and lifestyle buyers. Supply constraints, coupled with large scale infrastructure investments like the new gondola and upgraded transport links, position this region well for future growth. Queenstown’s enduring tourism appeal also supports rental demand and capital growth.


Investor takeaway:

Both regions offer a compelling mix of yield and long term appreciation. Investors with a medium to long term view should act before competition intensifies in spring.


What You Can Do This Month


  1. Refinance with confidence: If the OCR drops again in August as expected, mortgage rates could dip further. Now is the time to review your current structure and lock in favourable rates where possible.

  2. Valuation check: Auckland’s recent council valuations reveal value disparities between central and outer suburbs. Reviewing your latest CV may uncover underappreciated equity or lead to lower rates bills.

  3. Focus on constrained suburbs: Areas with limited development capacity but high demand, such as parts of South and West Auckland, offer strong potential for capital growth.

  4. Secure lifestyle market entry: In Papamoa and Frankton, Queenstown early positioning here could yield excellent long term returns.


The Bottom Line


2025 has seen the foundations of a property recovery being laid. From interest rate relief and pro-investor policies to regional resilience and structural housing shortages the pieces are falling into place. Spring is likely to mark a turning point in market activity, and those who act early will be best positioned to benefit from the recovery.


Need tailored insights? Book your complimentary 1-on-1 strategy session with a Staircase Financial Management advisor today. Let’s make sure your next move is your smartest yet.



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This publication has been provided for general information only. Although every effort has been made to ensure this publication is accurate the contents should not be relied upon or used as a basis for entering into any products described in this publication. To the extent that any information or recommendations in this publication constitute financial advice, they do not take into account any person’s particular financial situation or goals. We strongly recommend readers seek independent legal/financial advice prior to acting in relation to any of the matters discussed in this publication. No person involved in this publication accepts any liability for any loss or damage whatsoever which may directly or indirectly result from any advice, opinion, information, representation, or omission, whether negligent or otherwise, contained in this publication.

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